• 0 Posts
  • 144 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 28th, 2023

help-circle
  • It is, but forex markets allow traders to trade on significant margin. Meaning, if I have $100, I might be able to buy $1,000 worth of foreign currency (a 1:10 margin) and if the value of the currency increases 1% ($100) you get 10% of the profit, which is 10% of your investment. If the position increases by 10%, you double your money. However, this also means that if the value drops by 10%, your money is gone.

    Now consider that forex traders often leverage at 1:500 margins. You get to buy massive positions with currency pairs, and even the tiniest fluctuations can provide massive profits or instantaneous ruin.

    The algorithm I used monitored recurring micro-patterns, watching for predictable movements. You’re also watching relative value pairs, rather than just an absolute market value. Both sides of a currency pair have nations vying to improve the value of their own currency, so you can make money (or lose money) on either side of the pair. Dollar is low against the yen, buy dollars with yen. Yen drops against the dollar, sell your positions. Euro drops against the yen, go pick up Euros agains the yen, and feel confident that Japan is already trying to strengthen the yen (simplified example, because it’s way more complex than that).

    So if you track currencies across all currency pairs, you can find inconsistencies. I called it “torque” 15 years ago, but I’m sure a proper forex trader can give you an actual name for it. These are areas where three or more currencies are out of alignment, like if the dollar is up against the yen but down against the euro, and the yen is up against the euro. These are situations where you would expect the market to equalize in one direction or the other, and the trick was being able to predict which way it would go.

    And I thought I had figured that out. I had not figured that out. I had gotten lucky several times in a row. In fact, the market can tolerate that sort of incongruity, and the market forces on various positions are far more complicated. And because you’re leveraged, if you bet big, even small swings in the wrong direction can wipe you out.

    And because your leveraged, if the position dips, you can’t just hold it hoping it will bounce back. Once the loss in value reaches your investment, the position automatically closes and you’ve lost everything you put in. It doesn’t matter if it bounces all the way back up, because you no longer own it.


  • It hurt with fake money, because I thought I had discovered some big secret key. Like that movie Pi. And then it was gone. All the sucess, all the dreams of a 9-screen batcave-style computer station with financial tickers and shit. I realized that I had nothing, and I was foolish for thinking otherwise. Stung like a bitch.

    But you’re right, safe investments are the smarter long-term play. I did make an extra paycheck on dogecoin once on a moonshot. But otherwise, my boring retirement funds are all steadily beating inflation by a few percentage points. Why fight the tide?


  • Reminds me of the time I started learning about forex. I used a practice account to test an algorithm for recognizing short-term trends and trading on the activity. I ran a simulation for a few days to make sure it was working, and my fake $10,000 bankroll turned into $50,000 in less than a week. I was excited about the results, and went to explain it to someone with deeper pockets who might actually have $10k to invest, and in the time it took me to walk from my desk to his and back, it went to less than $600. Five minutes, $50k wiped out.

    Needless to say, he didn’t invest and I stopped daydreaming about owning a yacht. Forex is gambling.









  • When I was in high school, my biology class did a stream study, and the class funny guy was documenting it with a big vhs camcorder. I was standing next to him when he saw a broken drain pipe sticking out of a wall. He pointed the camera at the pipe, and called to me. “Hey, themeatbridge. See that hole? Don’t stick your dick in that hole.”

    I laughed, because it was funny, and the class also thought it was funny when we watched it later. So funny that it became the thing everyone said to me for about 6 months. “Hey, themeatbridge, see that outlet?” “Hey, the meatbridge, see that taco?” You get the idea. I became known as the guy who has to be told not to stick his dick in things.

    It was almost 30 years ago, and I still have ptsd from it.







  • There are an infinite number of numbers between 1 and 2. Infinite doesn’t mean boundless. So if you had a number line, and you place an infinite number of points on that line, you could then extend that line to be between 0 and 3. There would still be an infinite number of points, but those points would be further apart.

    Likewise the Universe is infinte in time and space. There’s always more time, more space, but also the time between points in time can grow and shrink, and the space between points in space can grow and shrink.


  • You’re just throwing random numbers around. Stocks generally aren’t that volatile, but when they do rise and fall quickly there’s usually a reason.

    Like let’s say you bought GameStop stock, and it experiences extreme volatility. Let’s keep the math easy and say you start with 100 shares of stock worth $10k total, and the stock jumps to $100k. Having diamond hands, you don’t want to sell, but you owe 28% of the $90k you “made” on the stock, which can be spread out over 9 years. You sell $2,800 worth of stock this year, and you’re left with $97,200. The next year, the stock tanks to it’s original value. You have $9,720 in stock, and you have a $2,800 prepaid tax credit for whenever you decide to sell the stock. The next year, the company goes bankrupt and dissolves. You have a $10,000 loss which you can deduct from taxable income over four years, and a $2,800 tax credit.

    Two things are important in this example: Such taxes only apply to individuals who have over $100 million in wealth. Nobody is going to end up poor because of the “burden” of paying a reasonable tax. The second point is that short term investments are taxed as regular income. So the example isn’t great, anyway.

    In spite of those caveats, it highlights the insignificance of the additional tax burden for capitalist speculators in volatile markets. Such a tax structure discourages hoarding and market manipulation while removing the loophole that the wealthiest individuals use to avoid most taxes altogether.