• 10 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • This generation of AI won’t “succeed”, I will be surprised if any current companies survive the eventual bubble pop. The LLMs will survive obviously as any other useful tech does.

    With the amount they have been funded, borrowed and valued at they need to replace a mass of workers with “Agentic AI” to make the trillions of return they expect/need in like 4 years from now. LLMs doing this is a pipe dream, more GPUs won’t make an LLM sentient. And every other use case is a losing proposition for these companies.


  • Yeah. Basically OpenAI and the like have been convinced that the more GPU you add the better AI will be. They don’t factor in diminishing returns. Which means all these companies are spending a fraction of a trillion dollars on GPU and data warehouses. The level of expenditure and debt they have taken on means that when (if) they turn a profit by 2030ish they need to be making back trillions to pay back all the debt and become as profitable as they are valued.

    The only way to do that is Agentic AI and replacing most of the workforce. This is a pipe dream, at least for now when “AI” is just different iterations of LLMs. Maybe it will happen in the future, but there is no way to tell if it really will need all these GPUs for it to happen.





  • A lot of the work doesn’t need doing.

    I remember an anthropology class where they were talking about early hominids who found these nut trees that produced huge caloricly dense nuts. They went from every day being a gamble trying to hunt or forage enough food to break even to all the sudden having a stable calorie surplus. One individual could gather 20k calories easy, this allowed others to not work. While some slacked off some took up past times and invention and they started inventing the tools that would eventually lead to them becoming human.

    There is no reason that this doesn’t hold true today. Take everything you need, food, reasonable shelter, phone, meds, etc and you come way, way below the amount you produced if you compared it to calories. We went from gathering the nuts to, farming to at least 3 periods of Industrialization and at each stage we easily 10x that amount of calories the average person produces. To the point today we could probably survive with half the people working like 12 hours a week.

    My point being that I believe UBI should be done, as the surplus that we produce is more than enough to cover it. I believe that if UBI were to happen we would see a new human renaissance bigger even than the Paleolithic or Neolithic Revolutions.